tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29113113600112855912024-02-21T04:17:50.772-08:00Cascading and Linked Multi-hazardsI am an Independent Consultant; my background includes a PhD at Southampton University, researching cascading and linked multi-hazards. I set up this blog to work through my ideas related to this area of research and hopefully receive some feedback from others with similar interests or greater expertise. With it being such a relatively new area of research, collaborating and exploring these ideas together could help us understand these phenomena better.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07907937290344933294noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-47092851100710106392016-06-21T08:36:00.002-07:002016-06-21T08:57:06.126-07:00Multi-hazards and dominoes at the UR2016 conference<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">This year the <a href="https://understandrisk.org/event/ur2016/" target="_blank">Understanding Risk 2016 Conference</a> in Venice
hosted two sessions related to multi-hazards and their interactions:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;"><a href="https://understandrisk.org/event-session/the-domino-effect/" target="_blank">The domino effect: the future of quantifying compounding events in delta</a>s</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="text-indent: -18pt;"><a href="https://understandrisk.org/event-session/multi-hazard-risk-models/" target="_blank">Challenges in developing multi-hazard riskmodels from local to global scale</a></span></span></li>
</ul>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">The domino effect:
the future of quantifying compounding events in deltas</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPeIUAu0xqdeSQ7r75QAvjiP_oPjeOzCr3lgMJxfvmmRvL5Ha3iIJx5qqIzUfs0Nd3r0vDCbDGA3RkHL5ipuosS3AjbUeS0Hg2hx3dPbp9sPvB3Y3jUYeVBNM-q85c87rHIEEWyuy_eS5X/s1600/UR2016.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPeIUAu0xqdeSQ7r75QAvjiP_oPjeOzCr3lgMJxfvmmRvL5Ha3iIJx5qqIzUfs0Nd3r0vDCbDGA3RkHL5ipuosS3AjbUeS0Hg2hx3dPbp9sPvB3Y3jUYeVBNM-q85c87rHIEEWyuy_eS5X/s400/UR2016.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">The “Domino effect” session integrated short presentations
from those researching interactions of hazards (mostly in deltas), with a panel
discussion session open to the audience. The discussion section on data issues
highlighted the problems of data related to interacting hazards such as the
lack of detailed data at an appropriate spatial scale to determine hazard
interactions; and that loss data from cascading events are attributed to the
primary hazard. The insurance industry was highlighted as a potential source of
useful data; it is widely acknowledged that the insurance industry models what
they commonly refer to as “secondary perils”. However, it is unclear precisely
how they model these interactions, as they are not transparent in their
methodology, or what data they potentially have access to (and whether they
would be willing to share it). There is also a push for more and better data
throughout the disaster community at the moment. This provides an excellent
opportunity for the multi-hazards community to identify what data is needed to
model and understand the interactions between hazards better, and therefore
what data needs to be gathered now to develop our understanding of
multi-hazards for the future.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Ways around the lack of data was also discussed –
particularly focusing on the practical aspects of understanding multi-hazards for
those on the ground. It was questioned whether we need to have all the data to
model interactions to be able to make decisions and act on them in the present.
For example, civil protection, non-governmental organisations, and communities
have to make decisions about multi-hazards on a regular basis. These decisions
cannot (and do not) wait for the science to catch up with needs. Therefore,
what can we learn from those already dealing with multi-hazards? What do they
need to make decisions? And are there any gaps that science can fill without
having to collect vast amounts of data?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">An agreement from the discussion was that community
knowledge is not enough – often potential interactions between hazards are
unknown as they go beyond historical or community memory. But similarly,
science is currently not enough. A multi-disciplinary approach to multi-hazards
is needed to push forward the field, but in a practical and useful way. The
session showed promise for future collaborative work on the theme, with an
inclusive approach to contributors to the topic, linking together those with a
background and experience in the field, with those who have a newer, fresh
perspective on the issue. In this way a range of skills and knowledge can be
applied to the problem in a systematic way to produce useful outputs for the
issue of multi-hazards.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Challenges in
developing multi-hazard risk models from local to global scale<o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLkZxY3KdtTr6PVgbm8zDPe6cqbabdlu0S4Yq9FYk2AVZazAKtgjFd_jLhTwwop-89dD-dMpf8tAbCLaSphzedc-Mm5ZMrdhcJlmLx758MDI7nC6GWpy1dCeiOsMaRgSP56-LZhqqoDDrL/s1600/Ci5ix_0XEAAU32N.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLkZxY3KdtTr6PVgbm8zDPe6cqbabdlu0S4Yq9FYk2AVZazAKtgjFd_jLhTwwop-89dD-dMpf8tAbCLaSphzedc-Mm5ZMrdhcJlmLx758MDI7nC6GWpy1dCeiOsMaRgSP56-LZhqqoDDrL/s400/Ci5ix_0XEAAU32N.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The “Multi-hazard risk models” session was opened by Mauro
Dolce from the National Civil Protection Department, Italy. He echoed some of
the discussion during the “Domino effects” session, highlighting that
multi-hazard thinking is already intuitive even if there is a lack of
quantitative data, for example, locating displaced people away from flood
plains in the aftermath of an earthquake. Echoing the literature, he outlined
the difficulties of comparing natural hazards, but was optimistic in using
losses as a common measure of comparison between hazards. He said cascading
effects are an example of complexity, and they represent a significant
challenge in implementing fully multi-hazard risk models. Despite the
difficulties, he emphasised that the growing complexity of modern society makes
the occurrence of these effects more and more fatal and catastrophic. In
conclusion, he promoted the need for the following:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="text-indent: -18pt;">
</div>
<ul><span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">Close the gap between science and technology, and decision making</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">Make information open, available, and accessible</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">Develop standards for multi-hazard risk analysis</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">Develop partnerships between natural hazard silos</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">Develop a consistent capability of modelling multi-hazards globally. Including independent, concurrent, and triggered events.</span></li>
</span></ul>
<span style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">
</span>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Peter Salamon from the Joint Research Centre emphasised the
need to bring a community together to focus on multi-hazards and their
interactions and tackle the problem in a systematic and holistic way, including
the suggestion of a multi-hazard focus group specifically designed for this
purpose.</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The discussion from this panel session focused on the
possibility of creating a global multi-hazard model with one standardised approach,
particularly looking at underlying risk and loss and impact of hazards to
synthesise and compare them. The suggested approach seemed to indicate fusing
the current global hazard models and organisations that currently exist (e.g. Global
Earthquake Model, Global Volcano Model, Global Tsunami Model). It was suggested
the Global Earthquake Model’s exposure database could be expanded to cover
vulnerability to other hazards. Whilst this is a promising advancement for the
multi-hazard field, and an achievable goal in the foreseeable future, there was
a lack of discussion on how to include the interactions between hazards in this
approach.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Multi-hazard buzz-word<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The increase in attention being paid to multi-hazards and
their interactions are clear in the number of sessions dealing with these
issues at this international event. The increase in attention is likely related
to the increased mention of multi-hazards and interacting effects in the 2015-2016
international agreements, such as the Sendai Framework. Whilst this is
encouraging and promising for this niche area to be receiving increased
attention, there is clear danger in everyone jumping on the newest buzz word
without a clear understanding of what the issues are surrounding interacting
hazards, and a thorough awareness of what has already been done in this area.
As such there is a risk of duplicating work and thinking that has already taken
place around multi-hazard issues, rather than pushing the sector forward with
the added momentum and interest it has recently received.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></o:p></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-family: inherit;">N/B I was on the panel discussion for the “Domino effect”
session, focusing on the data issues of interacting hazards. As such, this blog
summary does not include all the issues discussed during the panel session, as
I was unable to take notes.</span></i><o:p></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07907937290344933294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-18308340672004304892015-07-04T09:26:00.002-07:002015-07-04T09:26:12.987-07:00Defining "cascading disasters" and "cascading effects"A common difficulty in researching multi-hazards is that the <a href="http://cascadingandlinkedmultihazards.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/cascading-terms-in-literature.html" target="_blank">terminology</a> used in the literature varies greatly, and a standard definition of multi-hazards, cascading hazards etc does not seem to exist. A recent journal article has been published attempting to do just that: define what the term "cascading disasters" and "cascading effects" means.<br />
<br />
The paper<a href="https://planet-risk.org/index.php/pr/article/view/208/355" target="_blank"> "A definition of cascading disasters and cascading effects: Going beyond the "toppling dominos" metaphor"</a> by Gianluca Pescaroli and David Alexander first look into the ways in which the terms are used in the present literature. The paper then goes on to dig a little deeper into the drivers that tend to distinguish the phenomena. They conclude with proposing definitions for "cascading effects" and "cascading disasters" to be used going forward when referring to these situations. I include them here as extracts from the full paper, which can be freely obtained<a href="https://planet-risk.org/index.php/pr/article/view/208/355" target="_blank"> here.</a><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>"<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 21px; text-align: justify;">Cascading effects are the dynamics present in disasters, in which the impact of a physical event or the development of an initial technological or human failure generates a sequence of events in human subsystems that result in physical, social or economic disruption. Thus, an initial impact can trigger other phenomena that lead to consequences with significant magnitudes. Cascading effects are complex and multi-dimensional and evolve constantly over time. They are associated more with the magnitude of vulnerability than with that of hazards. Low-level hazards can generate broad chain effects if vulnerabilities are widespread in the system or not addressed properly in sub-systems. For these reasons, it is possible to isolate the elements of the chain and see them as individual (subsystem) disasters in their own right. In particular, cascading effects can interact with the secondary or intangible effects of disasters." </span></i></span><i style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 21px; text-align: justify;">- <a href="https://planet-risk.org/index.php/pr/article/view/208/355" target="_blank">Pescaroli and Alexander, 2015</a></span></i></div>
<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 21px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 21px; text-align: justify;">"</span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 21px; text-align: justify;">Cascading disasters are extreme events, in which cascading effects increase in progression over time and generate unexpected secondary events of strong impact. These tend to be at least as serious as the original event, and to contribute significantly to the overall duration of the disaster’s effects. These subsequent and unanticipated crises can be exacerbated by the failure of physical structures, and the social functions that depend on them, including critical facilities, or by the inadequacy of disaster mitigation strategies, such as evacuation procedures, land use planning and emergency management strategies. Cascading disasters tend to highlight unresolved vulnerabilities in human society. In cascading disasters one or more secondary events can be identified and distinguished from the original source of disaster." </span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 21px; text-align: justify;">- <a href="https://planet-risk.org/index.php/pr/article/view/208/355" target="_blank">Pescaroli and Alexander, 2015</a></span></i></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 21px; text-align: justify;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
I very much appreciate and celebrate that this paper has been published (it would have made things a lot easier to have this resource at the beginning of my PhD). There does, however, appear to remain a gap in defining or exploring "cascading hazards", in that the two definitions proposed in the paper include the influence the human or social world has upon disasters or the effects following an initial natural hazard event. This in itself is valuable, yet I would have thought defining "cascading hazards" - the more physical or natural side of the issue - would have been the first place to begin.<br />
<br />
Perhaps the authors thought that cascading hazards and the domino or triggering effect had been covered enough in the literature - after all, the title suggests in intention to go beyond the triggering chain of hazards. However, I still think there is a gap in the literature to deal with cascading hazards alone. Indeed, the issues and implications discussed in the paper relating to cascading disasters (such as amplification and interdependencies) are the same or similar issues related to cascading hazards. I guess I will have to wait eagerly for someone to write such a paper (or write one myself).<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 21px; text-align: justify;">All-in-all, the paper is likely to prove valuable to the multi-hazard research field. It's value is in the first real attempt to label cascading disasters and cascading effects. Whether the definition becomes more refined or refuted as time goes on, it at least provides a starting point from which to build upon.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 21px; text-align: justify;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 21px; text-align: justify;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i><a href="https://planet-risk.org/index.php/pr/article/view/208/355" target="_blank"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 21px; text-align: justify;">Pescaroli, G, and Alexander, D, 2015, </span>A definition of cascading disasters and cascading effects: Going beyond the "toppling dominos" metaphor, Global Risk Forum, <span style="background-color: white; line-height: 15.0528001785278px;">GRF Davos Planet@Risk, Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015.</span></a></i></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07907937290344933294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-38197769617583353062014-08-19T14:05:00.001-07:002014-08-19T14:05:43.253-07:00CascEff Project - the Role of Media in a Crisis: Leicester University<div class="documentDescription" id="parent-fieldname-description" style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.5em; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px;">
Leicester University is currently researching the role of media in the aftermath of crisis situations. The project comes under the European Commission's <a href="http://www.casceff.eu/en/Sidor/default.aspx" target="_blank">CascEff</a> project. I am looking forward to seeing the results of the study when it is published.</div>
<div class="documentDescription" id="parent-fieldname-description" style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.5em; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px;">
The following is an extract from <a href="http://www2.le.ac.uk/offices/press/press-releases/2014/august/research-to-examine-role-of-media-in-aftermath-of-crisis-situations?fb_action_ids=10152635243410763&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_ref=.U-icuIkzm0k.like" target="_blank">Leicester University's press pages</a>:</div>
<div class="plain" id="parent-fieldname-text" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<div style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
<i>Leicester researchers are examining how news coverage and social media activity during some of the largest disasters in recent years can help decision makers and incident managers prepare for future crisis situations.</i></div>
<div style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
<i>Researchers at the University of Leicester’s Department of Media and Communication are contributing to a European Commission-funded project called “CascEff: Modelling of dependencies and cascading effects for emergency management in crisis situations”.</i></div>
<div style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
<i>The project will examine the “cascading” effects of both natural and human disasters – where an initial incident can snowball, potentially threatening lives, property and the environment across large areas.</i></div>
<div style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
<i>The Leicester researchers are looking specifically at how disasters are framed in both the mainstream media and by members of the public on sites like Twitter as events unfold.</i></div>
<div style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
<i>They hope to identify examples of good practice for information dissemination to the public during crises. These will be used to develop a communication strategy for emergency services and incident managers to aid their preparation for future disaster events.</i></div>
<div style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
<i>The researchers will examine: natural catastrophes, such as earthquakes and flooding; fires in buildings and tunnels; and outdoor events such as pop concerts.</i></div>
<div style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
<i>Examples may include the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan in 2011, the effect of hurricane Sandy on New York City in 2012 and the floods in South-West England last winter.</i></div>
<div style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
<i>They also plan to look at news coverage of several earlier disasters, including the North Sea flood of 1953, the Sandoz fire and chemical spill in 1986 in Switzerland, and the fires which have broken out in the Channel Tunnel since its opening in 1994.</i></div>
<div style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
<i><a href="http://pauljreillydot.com/2014/06/28/casceff-update-update-on-project/" target="_blank">Dr Paul Reilly</a> of the University’s Department of Media and Communication is leading the Leicester project. He said: “We hope this research will help emergency services in the planning of their communications strategies during crises.</i></div>
<div style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
<i>“We will look at both social media and news media during these events, and how they can be used by incident managers to provide accurate, real-time information to members of the public. Clearly the immediacy of social media may have advantages and disadvantages for those involved in managing such situations. Our focus will be on how key stakeholders can harness these tools to correct rumours and false information and to minimise the cascading effects of these incidents.</i></div>
<div style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
<i>“The project will result in a report on the role of the media and the information flows that emerge during crisis situations, as well as a communication strategy which is intended to help decision-makers during future crisis situations.”</i></div>
<div style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
<i>The Leicester team will consist of Dr Reilly and Research Associate Dimitrinka Atanasova, with this part of the project due to finish in December 2015.</i></div>
<div style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
<i>The CascEff project also includes: SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden; Lund University, Sweden; the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency; Ghent University, Belgium; INERIS (the French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks); KCCE (the Belgian Federal Centre for Civil Security); Safety Centre Europe; Université de Lorraine; Northamptonshire Fire and Rescue Service; and E-Semble, a Netherlands-based firm which makes simulation software for training safety professionals.</i></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07907937290344933294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-9797745146860181452014-07-31T03:43:00.002-07:002014-07-31T03:43:45.903-07:00CRUST: Cascading Risk and Uncertainty assessment of earthquake Shaking and TsunamiBristol University's Faculty of Engineering have developed an interesting project on earthquakes and triggered tsunamis. The project is called <a href="http://www.bristol.ac.uk/engineering/news/2014/42.html" target="_blank">CRUST: Cascading Risk and Uncertainty assessment of earthquake Shaking and Tsunami</a>. I am looking forward to following the research outputs from this project.<br />
<br /><br />
The following extract is from Bristol University's Faculty news pages:<br />
<br /><br />
<br /><br />
<em>Building resilient infrastructure/communities against extremely large earthquakes is a global and urgent problem in active seismic regions. Economic consequences of natural catastrophes have become so devastating, reaching hundreds of billions of pounds in loss, and numerous mega-thrust events are anticipated to occur near vulnerable megacities around the world. The coordination on multiple, inter-related geophysical hazards (e.g. ground shaking and tsunami), analyses of which have been historically undertaken in a disintegrated manner, is needed. Although uncertainty is ubiquitous in natural hazards, treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment is fragmented. Improving the scientific understanding of hazard processes is crucial to better risk forecasting. </em><br />
<em><br /></em><br />
<em>CRUST (Cascading Risk and Uncertainty assessment of earthquake Shaking and Tsunami) tackles the global challenge of modelling cascading hazards due to mega-thrust subduction earthquakes by developing a novel methodology for multi-hazards risk assessment from a holistic standpoint and by promoting dynamic and informed decision-making processes for catastrophe risk management. The scientific innovation of the CRUST project lies in a coherent treatment of risk and uncertainty related to compounding risks due to mainshock ground shaking, massive tsunami, and prolific aftershocks acting on coastal infrastructure. Creating a blueprint of the methodology and demonstrating it for several seismic regions are the goals of this project.</em><br />
<em><br /></em><br />
<em>Specifically, the research objectives of CRUST are fivefold: (1) to develop an integrated multi-hazards impact assessment methodology for cascading earthquake-related phenomena (i.e. mainshock followed by tsunami and multiple aftershocks); (2) to characterise earthquake slips for future mega-thrust earthquakes as random field, and to evaluate the impact of uncertain slips on strong motion and tsunami simulations; (3) to model a sequence of mainshock-aftershock earthquake records based on actual observations, and to assess their combined effects on nonlinear structural response; (4) to model off-shore tsunami generation and propagation, to characterise tsunami fragility based on numerical simulations, and to validate these with a unique set of experimental data and field observations for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami; and (5) to develop practice-oriented engineering guidelines and tools for multi-hazards impact assessment, and to demonstrate their capabilities by applying them to other subduction zones, such as the Hikurangi (New Zealand) and Cascadia (Canada) zones.</em>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07907937290344933294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-79896635825146609982014-07-31T03:39:00.001-07:002014-07-31T03:45:05.115-07:00United Nations "Multi-hazard Disaster Risk Assessment" ConferenceThere is an upcoming conference on multi-hazards being held in China (<span class="date-display-start">15/09/2014</span><span class="date-display-separator"> - </span><span class="date-display-end">17/09/2014): </span><a href="http://www.un-spider.org/news-and-events/events/united-nations-international-conference-space-based-technologies-disaster-man" target="_blank">United Nations International Conference on Space-based Technologies for Disaster Management "Multi-hazard Disaster Risk Assessment".</a><br />
<br /><br />
The following is an extract from the conference website:<br />
<br /><br />
<br />
<br />
<h3>
<span style="font-size: 19px; font-weight: bold;"><em>Introduction</em></span></h3>
<em></em><br />
<em></em><br />
<em>UN-SPIDER is the United Nations Platform for <abbr title="Information that is derived from the data which is collected through sensors in satellites
When we talk about space-based information, we refer to the information that can be derived using Earth Observation, GNSS and satellite communications.
"><a class="glossary-term" href="http://www.un-spider.org/glossary/space-based-information" title="Information that is derived from the data which is collected through sensors in satellites
When we talk about space-based information, we refer to the information that can be derived using Earth Observation, GNSS and satellite communications.
">Space-based information</a></abbr> for <abbr title="A serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected society to cope using only its own resources. A disaster is triggered by a natural or technological hazard.
In contrast to a disaster, where the losses exceed the ability of the affected society to cope using its own resources; in an emergency the society has enough resources to cope with those losses.
"><a class="glossary-term" href="http://www.un-spider.org/glossary/disaster" title="A serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected society to cope using only its own resources. A disaster is triggered by a natural or technological hazard.
In contrast to a disaster, where the losses exceed the ability of the affected society to cope using its own resources; in an emergency the society has enough resources to cope with those losses.
">Disaster</a></abbr> Management and <abbr title="A disruption of the functioning of society, causing human, material or environmental damages and losses which do not exceed the ability of the affected society to cope using only its own resources.
"><a class="glossary-term" href="http://www.un-spider.org/glossary/emergency" title="A disruption of the functioning of society, causing human, material or environmental damages and losses which do not exceed the ability of the affected society to cope using only its own resources.
">Emergency</a></abbr> <abbr title="The provision of emergency services and public assistance during or immediately after a disaster in order to save lives, to reduce health impacts, to ensure public safety and to meet the basic subsistence needs of the people affected.
"><a class="glossary-term" href="http://www.un-spider.org/glossary/response" title="The provision of emergency services and public assistance during or immediately after a disaster in order to save lives, to reduce health impacts, to ensure public safety and to meet the basic subsistence needs of the people affected.
">Response</a></abbr>, a programme implemented by the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA). The UN-SPIDER Beijing Office is pleased to announce the “United Nations International Conference on Space-based Technologies for <abbr title="The organization and management of resources and responsibilities to address response and recovery.
This definition implies that disaster management comprises those activities conducted once a disaster has taken place and excludes those activities conducted before (prevention, mitigation, preparedness)
"><a class="glossary-term" href="http://www.un-spider.org/glossary/disaster-management" title="The organization and management of resources and responsibilities to address response and recovery.
This definition implies that disaster management comprises those activities conducted once a disaster has taken place and excludes those activities conducted before (prevention, mitigation, preparedness)
">Disaster Management</a></abbr> - "Multi-hazard <abbr title="The potential disaster losses, in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets and services, which could occur to a particular community or a society over some specified future time period. Disaster Risk is represented through the combination of hazard, vulnerability and deficiencies in preparedness.
Expressed in this fashion, disaster risk is assessed via the assessment of hazard, vulnerability and deficiencies in preparedness."><a class="glossary-term" href="http://www.un-spider.org/glossary/disaster-risk" title="The potential disaster losses, in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets and services, which could occur to a particular community or a society over some specified future time period. Disaster Risk is represented through the combination of hazard, vulnerability and deficiencies in preparedness.
Expressed in this fashion, disaster risk is assessed via the assessment of hazard, vulnerability and deficiencies in preparedness.">Disaster Risk</a></abbr> Assessment" from 15 to 17 September 2014.</em><br />
<em></em><br />
<em>The UN-SPIDER Beijing Office has successfully organised three conferences since 2011. Previous conferences covered the themes of “Best Practices for Risk Reduction and Rapid Response mapping” in 2011, “Risk Assessment in the context of global <abbr title="The term 'climate change' is sometimes used to refer to all forms of climatic inconsistency, but because the Earth's climate is never static, the term is more properly used to imply a significant change from one climatic condition to another. In some cases, 'climate change' has been used synonymously with the term, 'global warming'; scientists however, tend to use the term in the wider sense to also include natural changes in climate.
Source: NASA (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Glossary)"><a class="glossary-term" href="http://www.un-spider.org/glossary/climate-change" title="The term 'climate change' is sometimes used to refer to all forms of climatic inconsistency, but because the Earth's climate is never static, the term is more properly used to imply a significant change from one climatic condition to another. In some cases, 'climate change' has been used synonymously with the term, 'global warming'; scientists however, tend to use the term in the wider sense to also include natural changes in climate.
Source: NASA (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Glossary)">climate change</a></abbr>” in 2012 and “Disaster risk identification, assessment and monitoring” in 2013. These conferences offered a forum for disaster management communities and experts to strengthen their capabilities in using space based information to identify, assess, monitor and respond to disaster risks and integrate space technology into long-term disaster risk management efforts.</em><br />
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</em></h3>
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<em>
Rationale</em></h3>
<em>Recent disasters around the world have highlighted shortfalls in efforts of the governments and communities, including development partners, in reducing disaster risks. Although early warnings of hydrologic hazards (floods, storm surges, coastal erosion and droughts) and meteorological hazards (cyclones, tornadoes, windstorms etc.) are able to save human lives in some cases, the economic and environmental losses are often huge and recovery will usually take years to normalize. Therefore, countries need to have an increasing focus on economic, environmental and human costs of disasters and develop approaches to lessen the risks and reduce loss of lives and property.</em><br />
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<em>All the elements of disaster risk are <abbr title="A characteristic that refers to a location (which may be a specific location on the Earth's surface, or relative to an arbitrary point). Source: NASA (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Glossary)
"><a class="glossary-term" href="http://www.un-spider.org/glossary/spatial" title="A characteristic that refers to a location (which may be a specific location on the Earth's surface, or relative to an arbitrary point). Source: NASA (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Glossary)
">spatial</a></abbr> in nature. Earth observation and geospatial <abbr title="A collection of facts, concepts or instructions in a formalized manner suitable for communication or processing by human beings or by computer.
Source: NASA (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Glossary)"><a class="glossary-term" href="http://www.un-spider.org/glossary/data" title="A collection of facts, concepts or instructions in a formalized manner suitable for communication or processing by human beings or by computer.
Source: NASA (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Glossary)">data</a></abbr> provide critical information on elements of risk delivered in the form of maps. These help in predicting and identifying risks more accurately as well as planning responses in a timely manner when they degenerate into a disaster.</em><br />
<em></em><br />
<em>Multi-hazard risks give an indication of the overall risk posed to a community. Multi-hazard approaches are valuable in providing an overview of the overall risk and thus enhancing effective planning countermeasures. Such approaches avoid enhancing further risks in the attempt to reducing already existing ones. The purpose of this conference is therefore to promote the role of space-based and geospatial information in a multi-hazard disaster risk assessment. It seeks to bring together experts and end-users to a single platform to ensure that space-based information is effectively employed in decision-making towards saving lives and reducing economic losses.</em><br />
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Conference Sessions</em></h3>
<em>The conference will cover the following topics:</em><br />
<em></em><br />
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<em><strong>Session 1: Disaster Risk Management and Space-based information:</strong> This session will discuss experiences and good practices of disaster risk management at different levels, with a focus on the role and contribution of space-based information.</em><br />
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<em><strong>Session 2: Approach and methodology in using space based information in multi-hazard identification and risk assessment </strong>This session will discuss the applied research and development on the approaches, models, methodologies, tools, service <abbr title="A satellite that can carry instruments. See bus. The same term is applied to automatic weather data transmitters installed on buoys, balloons, ships, and planes, and mounted in remote areas. Source: NASA (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Glossary)
"><a class="glossary-term" href="http://www.un-spider.org/glossary/platforms" title="A satellite that can carry instruments. See bus. The same term is applied to automatic weather data transmitters installed on buoys, balloons, ships, and planes, and mounted in remote areas. Source: NASA (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Glossary)
">platforms</a></abbr> and operational projects related to multi-hazard identification and disaster risk assessment.</em><br />
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<em><strong>Session 3: Space-based information resources for hazard identification and risk assessment </strong>This session will discuss the space-based information advances in <abbr title="he technology of acquiring data and information about an object or phenomena by a device that is not in physical contact with it. In other words, remote sensing refers to gathering information about the Earth and its environment from a distance, a critical capability of the Earth Observing System.
For example, spacecraft in low-Earth orbit pass through the outer thermosphere, enabling direct sampling of chemical species there. These samples have been used extensively to develop an understanding of thermospheric properties. Explorer-17, launched in 1963, was the first satellite to return quantitative measurements of gaseous stratification in the thermosphere. However, the mesosphere and lower layers cannot be probed directly in this way--global observations from space require remote sensing from a spacecraft at an altitude well above the mesopause. The formidable technological challenges of atmospheric remote sensing, many of which are now being overcome, have delayed detailed study of the stratosphere and mesosphere by comparison with thermospheric research advances.
Some remote-sensing systems encountered in everyday life include the human eye and brain, and photographic and video cameras. Source: NASA (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Glossary)
"><a class="glossary-term" href="http://www.un-spider.org/glossary/remote-sensing" title="he technology of acquiring data and information about an object or phenomena by a device that is not in physical contact with it. In other words, remote sensing refers to gathering information about the Earth and its environment from a distance, a critical capability of the Earth Observing System.
For example, spacecraft in low-Earth orbit pass through the outer thermosphere, enabling direct sampling of chemical species there. These samples have been used extensively to develop an understanding of thermospheric properties. Explorer-17, launched in 1963, was the first satellite to return quantitative measurements of gaseous stratification in the thermosphere. However, the mesosphere and lower layers cannot be probed directly in this way--global observations from space require remote sensing from a spacecraft at an altitude well above the mesopause. The formidable technological challenges of atmospheric remote sensing, many of which are now being overcome, have delayed detailed study of the stratosphere and mesosphere by comparison with thermospheric research advances.
Some remote-sensing systems encountered in everyday life include the human eye and brain, and photographic and video cameras. Source: NASA (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Glossary)
">remote sensing</a></abbr> data, information products, software used for multi-hazard monitoring, data visualization and data dissemination tools for disaster risk assessment.</em><br />
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<em><strong>Session 4: Space-based information for damage and loss estimation</strong> This session will discuss the methods and present case studies demonstrating the use of space–based information for disaster damage and loss assessment. This session aims to extend the scope of space-based information beyond emergency mapping, providing valuable information in damage and loss assessment.</em><br />
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<em><strong>Session 5: Networking and engagement with the UN-SPIDER network</strong> This session will aim at promoting the engagement of Member States and partner organisations with the UN-SPIDER Pprogramme. The session will discuss best practices of using space-based information and the impacts of the technical advisory support offered through the UN-SPIDER Programme.</em><br />
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Working groups</em></h3>
<em>Working groups will be organised to discuss the cooperation related to disaster risk reduction mapping services and products, information sharing and cooperation projects in this area. The working groups will develop guiding points on ‘drought monitoring and risk assessment’ at the national level.</em><br />
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Target Audience</em></h3>
<em>Disaster managers, policy makers, providers of space technology solutions/tools/applications from governments, academia, research, NGO and corporate sector. Number of expected participants: 120</em><br />
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How to apply and application deadline</em></h3>
<em>The final deadline for registration was <strong>29 June 2014</strong>.</em>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-79243192990901138222014-03-17T18:35:00.000-07:002014-03-17T18:35:01.451-07:00Westwood Earthquake: Risk of Future Earthquakes-and-LandslidesAt <a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ci15476961#summary">13:25 UTC today on Monday 17th March a M4.4 earthquake occurred 9km NNW of Westwood, California,</a> near to the city of Los Angeles. Whilst luckily no one was hurt, the earthquake serves as a reminder for those living within the region of the threat posed by the seismic faults beneath them. It is unknown or unreported at the moment whether any landslides or secondary hazards were triggered by the event. The epicentre of the earthquake is fairly close in proximity to the epicentre of the <a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/events/1994_01_17.php">1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake</a> which caused significant damage.
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I am currently on holiday in San Diego at the moment, and hearing of the earthquake so close to me (in comparison to when I was in the UK) has prompted this blog post. My current research into earthquake triggered landslides has used the Northridge 1994 earthquake as a case study, investigating 'what-if' scenarios simulating the potential impact of such an event occurring in the present day. Unfortunately, I do not have my data or sources with me on holiday. But, I wanted to capture some of my thoughts on the event as soon as possible. I hope to update this post when I return to the UK for clarification and further details.<br />
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The area affected has been in a recent earthquake <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/earthquake-47-quake-strikes-near-westwood-california-yxdnr8,0,4535905.story#axzz2wH0iFk5Z">'drought'</a> with few earthquakes of significant magnitude occurring in recent years. The USGS suggest there is a potential for the recent M4.4 earthquake to be followed by another earthquake in the near future. Indeed, the entire region of Los Angeles is at risk of high magnitude earthquakes.
The residents of Westwood and surrounding region are lucky the earthquake today was not of a higher magnitude and I can only hope this serves as a reminder for all those living in the region of the potential severity a bigger earthquake could cause.<br />
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There are currently no reports of landsliding in the area as a result of the earthquake. With a M4.0 the typically accepted threshold for triggering landslides, perhaps we may hear reports of landsliding coming in soon for more remote locations. The 1994 Northridge earthquake triggered tens of thousands of <a href="http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1995/ofr-95-0213/">landslides</a> in the surrounding region. Luckily, these landslides had minimal interaction with the population and infrastructure. However, where a landslide did affect a building, the damage from said landslide was approximately three times greater than the average damage caused by the earthquake shaking to similar buildings. Since 1994, there has been substantial development in Los Angeles, the San Fernando Velley and in the hillier areas surrounding Northridge.<br />
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Whilst I cannot go into specifics of the case study simulations I have run due to publication constraints, I can report that initial results suggest that even if the same earthquake occurred tomorrow as occurred in 1994 at Northridge, the potential impact of such an event would be greater than what was experienced in 1994. Even a smaller magnitude earthquake of, say, M6.0 could potentially cause as much damage as the M6.7 Northridge 1994 event, if it were to occur tomorrow. I will be able to give such statistics when/if the paper is accepted for publication in the near future.<br />
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The <a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ci15476961#pager">USGS PAGER estimates</a> of losses due to secondary hazards states for today's event: "Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction that might have contributed to losses." This highlights a limitation of the PAGER loss estimates - the effect of secondary hazards are not currently accounted for in the report. This is an area the USGS is currently developing to be able to aid assessments of potential damage from the main shaking and secondary hazards for use in the future. Whilst secondary hazards such as landsliding do not always occur as a result of an earthquake, and in most cases, the majority of earthquake damages are caused by shaking, there are enough cases where the triggered landslides have caused a significant proportion of the damage to warrant concern. In some exceptional events, landsliding has caused the majority of losses as a result of an earthquake trigger. Development of a predictive tool for assessing landslide and liquefaction hazard and losses would be incredibly useful for emergency responders to get a more accurate picture of the disaster and locate areas of secondary hazard damage that may not be accounted for by earthquake shaking alone.<br />
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Whilst further research is required into the potential impact of secondary hazards, and the Southern California region provides an almost unprecedented amount of research and data to be of use in this area, I have respect and faith in the USGS and California research expertise in the area. From what I have learnt, California is one of the most regulated and highly prepared states for earthquake risk. By being located on active fault planes with high potential to experience the 'Big One' in multiple cities in the state, the officials and researchers have been forced to up their game. Whilst I hope that the region does not experience a high magnitude earthquake, the reality is that they are going to have one occur.<br />
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I hope the M4.4 experienced today has provided a timely reminder to all those living there of what they could face, and causes them to prepare and be able to respond appropriately if and when a future big earthquake comes their way.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-88302747096300633752013-12-06T06:26:00.004-08:002013-12-06T06:26:36.330-08:00Interacting UK Hazards - Impacts and Origins PhDLoughborough University has recently advertised for a PhD opportunity: <a href="http://www.lboro.ac.uk/services/graduateschool/funding-prospective/university-and-external/nerc-centa/centa-project-2/index.html">"Interacting UK Hazards - Impacts and Origins". </a>It's great to see the field and funding is starting to get on board with multiple and interacting natural hazards! <br />
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<strong>Interacting UK Hazards – Impacts and Origins</strong> <br />
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<em>Dr John Hillier, Geography, Loughborough </em><br />
<em>Dr Gregor Leckebusch, School GEES, Birmingham </em><br />
<em>Dr Kate Royse, British Geological Survey </em><br />
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<strong>Summary: </strong><br />
An excellent, inquisitive and highly-numerate student is sought to combine novel and industry-based GIS methods (i.e., catastrophe modelling) to understand the origins and impacts of interacting hazards as they afflict the UK. <br />
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<strong>Background: </strong><br />
The UK is affected by several natural hazards (e.g., floods in 2007). These are currently considered independently, but they could interact. A pilot study by the supervisors, using a novel way of examining past data, has robustly shown that interactions can alter likely ‘worst case’ losses by ~£50 million. This is of immediate interest to insurance companies and with much potential to contribute to policy making about the resilience of the UK as climate changes. <br />
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<strong>Objectives & Methodology: </strong><br />
A core of the work is low risk, building directly upon the pilot study, but scope exists for a student to innovate and excel. A key objective is to understand the origin of the interaction between shrink-swell subsidence losses for clay soils and other risks. This will be done by relating loss data (Zurich Insurance) to recorded weather patterns and developing published work linking subsidence and climate using British Geological Survey (BGS) data (e.g., GeoSure). The strength of interaction between physical processes required to explain the observed impacts will be quantified by generating catastrophe models [e.g., Donat & Leckebusch, 2011; Royse & Hillier In Press] (new QuickCat code). ‘Catastrophe modelling’ is relatively little used in academia, giving potential for exciting developments, and the last stage of this project is a new use for the technique. <br />
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<strong>Employability: </strong><br />
A secondment to Zurich Insurance Plc. (3-6 months) has been negotiated, and engagement with the BGS is anticipated. Catastrophe modelling underpins all financial risk assessment, and is becoming critical in Disaster Risk Reduction and humanitarian efforts, ideally placing the student for a range of careers. Training will include fieldwork, integrated modelling, GIS, and relevant programming giving the student skills identified as ‘most wanted’ for environmental jobs; ‘modelling’, ‘multi-disciplinarity’, ‘risk and uncertainty’. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-66006155209854354442013-11-07T02:10:00.003-08:002013-11-07T02:10:43.959-08:00Multi-Hazards Summer School 2014The Association of Pacific Rim Universities are hosting a <a href="http://apru.org/calendar/multi-hazards-summer-school-2014" target="_blank">Multi-Hazards Summer School</a> in July 2014 at Tohoku University (date to be announced). <br />
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The Multi-Hazards Summer School objectives are to: <br />
<ul>
<li>Increase knowledge of the Hyogo Framework for Action (168 countries adopted at the UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction in 2005) and DRR initiatives in Japan; </li>
<li>Share lessons and experiences on effective disaster preparedness from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami; </li>
<li>Discuss the roles of universities/research institutes in DRR and their challenges; and </li>
<li>Identify collaborative synergies among APRU universities in DRR and develop strategies to harness these. </li>
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<strong>Program </strong><br />
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The Multi-HazardsSummer School consists of a 2-day seminar and a site visit to the affected area impacted by the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. <br />
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Summer School topics will include: <br />
<ul>
<li>Hyogo Framework for Action ~ International framework for DRR ~ </li>
<li>DRR initiatives and history in Japan </li>
<li>Lessons-learnt from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami </li>
<li>Campus safety </li>
<li>Good practices of DRR initiatives by academia </li>
<li>Future roles of academia in DRR </li>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-63359288630820849732013-10-25T03:55:00.002-07:002013-10-25T03:56:21.536-07:00EGU 2014: Multi-type hazard and risk assessment: Concepts and methodologies<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Details of the <a href="http://www.egu2014.eu/home.html">2014 EGU </a>multi-type hazard and risk session for you all. Really disappointed I won't be able to attend this year. Once again, Kevin Fleming from the MATRIX project convening the session. Really nice to see this topic being pushed forward. Hope there are some good and relevant presentations for 2014!<br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><strong>NH9.9 Multi-type hazard and risk assessment: Concepts and methodologies</strong></span><span style="font-family: 'Arial','sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br /><br />Convener: Kevin Fleming<br />Co-Conveners: Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal , Nadejda Komendantova <br /><br />Losses arising from natural hazards are increasing worldwide, and are expected <br />to continue to do so, often as a result of the increased exposure and vulnerability <br />of human society. Scientists, engineers, regional and local planners, civil <br />protection authorities and disaster managers usually treat natural and <br />anthropogenic hazards and risks individually; however, such a framework leads <br />to the neglect of the frequent spatial and temporal relationships that exist between <br />hazards and their associated risks. This potentially leads to the situation where <br />simply summing the individual risks may result in an underestimation of their true <br />impact, while identifying the different types of risk, i.e., direct versus indirect, and <br />tangible versus intangible, remains a challenge. There is therefore an <br />increasing realisation that a multi-hazard and risk framework is necessary if <br />one is to effectively assess the consequences of natural and anthropogenic <br />disasters, and to optimise the available resources for mitigating against such <br />events. Such a framework would need to consider the various interactions <br />between different hazard types, and hazards and risks, while also considering <br />the different loss types in order to gain a complete view of how disasters impact <br />upon the broader society.<br /><br />This session aims at presenting the latest developments in the area of multi-type <br />hazard and risk assessment. The issues of particular concern are cascade effects, <br />including the interactions between natural and NaTech events, uncertainty <br />propagation and temporal dependency, which requires examining short-term <br />sequences where hazards occur almost simultaneously or are triggered by one <br />another, to longer-term scenarios that may cover several months or years. Case <br />studies where a multi-type framework has been applied (for better or for worse) or <br />could have been beneficially applied are also of interest.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-69582814140376855872013-10-25T03:27:00.003-07:002013-10-25T03:27:51.432-07:00Landslide scenarios for a large Seattle earthquake: Blog Post ShareA quick share to let you know of a recent post on the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience Blog about an electronically released paper on landslide scenarios for a large Seattle earthquake. Post <a href="http://ihrrblog.org/2013/10/24/landslide-scenarios-for-a-large-seattle-earthquake/">here</a>, written by Dave Petley reviews the paper. For access to the paper, click <a href="http://www.bssaonline.org/content/early/2013/10/15/0120130051.full">here.</a><br />
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This paper is very close to my research in simulating earthquake-triggered landslide occurrences and the potential damages from them.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-52903169884082052652013-10-25T03:13:00.005-07:002013-10-25T03:56:57.014-07:009th Multi-Hazards Symposium 2013The APRU symposium series on Multi-Hazards around the Pacific Rim is having its ninth symposium from 28 to 29 October 2013 at National Taiwan University in Chinese Taipei.
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Unfortunately, I have only just become aware of this event so will not be attending. It is unlikely I would have had time at this stage of my PhD to travel there to present in any case. <br />
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The 9th APRU symposium is hosted by the Center for Weather Climate and Disaster Research (WCDR) at National Taiwan University. For general information, please refer to the <a href="http://www.apru2013.com/">website</a>. <br />
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The 9th APRU symposium aims to convene scholars and experts from countries around the Pacific Rim. The inter-disciplinary knowledge on multi-hazard researches can be exchanged and shared through APRU collaboration. The symposium will focus on related topics of multi-hazards induced by extreme weather, earthquake, volcanic activity and haze pollution. Other issues are also included such as advanced monitoring and forecasting techniques, risk assessment, disaster health and emergency management, as well as education on disaster reduction. <br />
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Topics: <br />
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1.Multi-hazards induced by extreme weather; Multi-hazards induced by earthquake; Multi-hazards induced by volcanic activity; Air pollution and haze related issue <br />
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2.Disaster risk assessment and impact analysis; Advanced research on monitoring, sensing, nowcasting and forecasting <br />
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3.Disaster management and education; Post-disaster recovery and reconstruction; Disaster health and emergency management Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-39221233630044742902013-09-15T06:18:00.000-07:002013-09-15T06:18:31.014-07:00Foresight Review Case Study: Global Multiple Hazard and Risk MappingThe <a href="http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/publications/annual-reviews" target="_blank">Foresight Review</a> commissioned in 2012 has a section (co-written by me) on multiple hazard and risk mapping. I forgot to post something about it at the time. Click on the links below for access to the documents.<br />
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<a href="http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/policy-futures/disasters" target="_blank"><strong>Reducing Risks of Future Disasters: Priorities for Decision Makers.</strong></a><strong> </strong><br />
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Evidence base document for download: <a href="http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/reducing-risk-management/supporting-evidence/12-1304-state-of-the-art-risk-mapping.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>State-of-the-Art in Risk Mapping</strong></a><br />
<strong>CASE STUDY: Global Multiple Hazard and Risk mapping</strong> (p49)<br />
Authors: Mirianna E.A. Budimir, Peter M. Atkinson and Hugh G. Lewis <br />
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A quote from the document for you all:<br />
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"Multi-hazard risk assessment should also take into consideration the interaction between multiple hazards affecting an area. Natural hazards act in a natural system and as such are complex and affect each other. The cascading effects of natural hazards and their impact on resultant risk is an important area of research which has received little attention to date."Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-22113852773905133872013-09-15T05:38:00.002-07:002013-09-15T05:59:44.531-07:00Thoughts on NERC PURE Associates Brokerage WorkshopOn 10th September I attended the NERC PURE Associates brokerage workshop in Oxford, aimed at bringing together researchers and practitioners to collaborate for a grant. The <a href="http://www.nerc.ac.uk/research/programmes/pure/events/associates-call.asp">call</a> aims “to fund scientists to work with business, policy-makers and NGOs to apply their knowledge and skills to improve assessments of natural hazard risk and enhance decision-making”, by funding projects of between three to six months’ duration that will transfer existing knowledge, models and expertise into business, policy or NGOs. <br />
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NERC stipulated the aim of the projects should be either: <br />
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a. To produce robust risk assessments based upon single or multiple natural hazards that integrate measures or models of exposure and vulnerability; this will enable decision-makers to take action to manage risk; <br />
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b. To develop tools to support decision-making under environmental uncertainty. <br />
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NERC would particularly encourage applications for projects which:<br />
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<li>develop robust assessments of risk to infrastructure, business operations and supply chains from natural hazards, including extreme weather; </li>
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<li>develop risk models around multi-hazard assessments; </li>
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<li>develop tools to visualise and communicate risk and uncertainty; </li>
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<li>develop tools to inform planning for long-term investment such as infrastructure or business interruption, including risks to the supply chain; </li>
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<li>develop tools to help emergency planning and responses, and build community resilience through humanitarian and development organisations; </li>
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<li>adapt tools developed in other application areas for managing risk and uncertainty to natural hazards. </li>
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The day was incredibly useful. I made lots of contacts and met people doing really interesting research, with great ideas for projects. Personally, these types of events always get me re-excited about research and reminds me why I am in this field of research. A few things occurred during the day that really surprised or struck me and I thought I would share them on this blog.<br />
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After being informed three years ago that multi-hazard risk assessment is already normal practice for catastrophe modelling and risk assessment in the industry (which deflated me a little/lot), I was surprised to discover that is not entirely true. Some Cat Models only account for the major hazards affecting a region and landslide hazards are often entirely missing altogether. Perhaps I was a little naive all those years ago to take the word of one practitioner as gospel. But I had no way of checking. Competitive businesses do not put their information online as open source for all to see. This is entirely natural as they do not want other competitors stealing their methods, but holds back the development of the field of research.<br />
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The poor-showing of NGOs at the event surprised me. Although it was emphasised the purpose of the workshop was to get practitioners networking with academics, when the attendee list was skimmed, there were very few of those end users and NGOs - the majority of those there were academics. One of the questions from the research grant call was 'What are the biggest problems facing NGOs?'. With very few there from an NGO, there was noone to answer the question. Perhaps my expectations of the number of NGOs to be there was a little high though. The gap between NGOs and academics is a problem that I keep seeing crop up just in the last few years of my PhD research. There is a realisation that NGOs and end-users need to be involved in research and collaborate or help guide the research questions of academics, but at the end of the day the gap is still pretty big between them.
This call was specifically aimed at trying to bridge that gap. I hope that some collaborations come out as a result of the call.
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Bridging gaps between disciplines and communicating research is supposed to be encouraged, and yet specialism is rewarded and prized at Universities. This is a huge conflict of priorities. During the workshop, the idea od a 'translator' was raised - someone who understands the science, empathises with the needs of the end-users, and is able to speak both languages and act as a broker. They are essential and valued in communicating the information between scientists and end-users. But in academia they are rarely recognised or respected - publications in academic journals appears to be the end goal. Which on the one hand is right and on the other is frustrating. Perhaps we need a new discipline in academia specifically aimed at this communication, and Geography is the department that this would really work.<br />
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Unfortunately, there is still a lack of multi-hazard research. At the workshop, there were only a few proposals talked about that were aimed at this area. And it didn't pop up at all in the discussion sessions. Academics are encouraged to be specialists, and getting round this with inter-disciplinary teams and research projects could help, but often raises more difficulties. <br />
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There were a few proposals that were aimed at tackling the multi-hazard issues, and this was encouraging. The field is obviously still new and developing, and it is slowly gathering evidence, models and information behind it. I hope this continues and I look forward to following these developments.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-67446118875758018072013-04-17T07:33:00.000-07:002013-04-17T07:33:51.749-07:00Dynamics and Impacts of Interacting Natural Hazards Workshop Report<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">A report documenting the <em>First Dynamics and Impacts of Interacting Natural Hazards Workshop Report </em>is now available </span><a href="https://sites.google.com/a/interactinghazards.com/interactinghazards/" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">online</span></a><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">First Workshop on the Dynamics and Impact of Interacting Natural Hazards </i>was held at University College London on 14 February 2013.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The one day workshop was attended by 20 participants from across academia (with representatives from six universities in the UK and Europe), industry and the public sector, <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">and was hosted by the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Centre (ABUHC)</span>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The event was a collaborative effort between three PhD students – myself, Melanie Duncan and Joel Gill – who are currently working in the field of interacting multi-hazards.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">The short report summarises the presentations and discussions that took place and outlines the actions that will be taken forward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> The original workshop agenda and the participants at the workshop are included in the Appendices.</span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Three main discussion and presentation sessions took place on the day:</span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Session 1: Defining and introducing multi-hazard and multi-hazard interactions</span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Session 2: Methods to identify, model and constrain multi-hazard interactions</span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Session 3: Practical applications and mitigation strategies</span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">The workshop provided a unique opportunity for networking with researchers and practitioners with an interest in interacting hazards – participants discussed potential collaborations as well as methods for improving the dissemination of their research.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-62922476578591919742013-03-14T05:04:00.001-07:002013-03-14T05:04:32.162-07:00Dynamics and Impact of Interacting Hazards Workshop<br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">THE DYNAMICS AND IMPACT OF INTERACTING HAZARDS WORKSHOP<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Co-organized between UCL, KCL, and Southampton University<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">London, UK (14 February 2013)<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; display: none; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-hide: all; mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" filled="f" id="_x0000_t75" o:preferrelative="t" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" stroked="f"><v:stroke joinstyle="miter"></v:stroke><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect" o:extrusionok="f"></v:path><o:lock aspectratio="t" v:ext="edit"></o:lock></v:shapetype></span><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">On 14 February 2013, the First Dynamics and Impact of Interacting Hazards Workshop was </span><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">convened as a collaborative effort between three PhD students – Mirianna Budimir (University of Southampton), Melanie Duncan (University College London), and Joel Gill (King's College London). The workshop, hosted this year by the UCL Aon Benfield Hazard Centre,</span><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> aimed to explore current research into interacting hazards and future collaborative opportunities, as well as emphasising the importance of hazard interactions. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; margin-bottom: 2pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">This one day workshop was attended by 20 participants from academia, industry and the public sector, with representatives from six universities in the UK and Europe. Short presentations were delivered on themes including defining a multi-hazard approach, tools and methodologies to constrain hazard interactions, and the effective integration of hazard interaction knowledge into hazard assessments. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Interspersed between these presentations, a large amount of time was given for small (often very animated) group discussions, with each smaller group reporting back to the larger set of participants. Discussions were wide ranging, sharing ideas about different types of evidence for interacting hazards, balancing the complexities of interacting hazards research with the needs of stakeholders, and the importance of assessing uncertainty.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span> </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPvgZWe15Agu_gp5QMMKJqyv-IupVy7afR-JLkppSD2ujssEpQOOjmi2Ho92KVPUlviWW3gboVTiqbmkz6cHbO1wtWwo7dRWZFUeUD3HgAf3ktX2ZDELrI3EELDc9URz9Tgn0pmLpnVzQ/s1600/Workshop2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" psa="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPvgZWe15Agu_gp5QMMKJqyv-IupVy7afR-JLkppSD2ujssEpQOOjmi2Ho92KVPUlviWW3gboVTiqbmkz6cHbO1wtWwo7dRWZFUeUD3HgAf3ktX2ZDELrI3EELDc9URz9Tgn0pmLpnVzQ/s400/Workshop2.png" width="400" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4IT0EGclROLu4C8qKuQmn9F5YOmxYQhkB6uX7zEBo2mK1aJG-NlXCwrnoDNvaU6WITQr5ZXzM0lRI5oGW1OuazcSA__mX8tHYpO423NQ5zIQnrlBfBLeEigJvXa_-eRxkf3c0i-nh9K0/s1600/Workshop1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="298" psa="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4IT0EGclROLu4C8qKuQmn9F5YOmxYQhkB6uX7zEBo2mK1aJG-NlXCwrnoDNvaU6WITQr5ZXzM0lRI5oGW1OuazcSA__mX8tHYpO423NQ5zIQnrlBfBLeEigJvXa_-eRxkf3c0i-nh9K0/s400/Workshop1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The workshop highlighted the importance of interacting hazards research, as well as the challenges of retaining focus within such a broad topic. It also verified the importance of ensuring a standard terminology is developed and used within the emerging field of multi-hazard research. The convenors will be publishing a full workshop report on the interacting hazards website (</span><a href="http://www.interactinghazards.com/"><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="color: blue;">www.interactinghazards.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">), and hope to organise further workshops in the future. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-16118203485958753782012-11-09T08:21:00.003-08:002012-11-09T08:21:36.906-08:00Landslides following Guatemala earthquakeInitial reports of landslides from the 7th November 2012 7.4M earthquake of the coast of Guatemala suggest they have become a 'significant problem'.<br />
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Please see <a href="http://ihrrblog.org/2012/11/09/initial-reports-of-landslides-from-the-7th-november-2012-earthquake-in-guatemala/" target="_blank">Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience Blog</a> for a more detailed post. I will hopefully follow up as more becomes known.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-70294109987747835662012-10-15T04:20:00.001-07:002012-10-15T04:20:22.609-07:00Interacting Natural Hazards Workshop/ConferenceAnnouncing a great upcoming conference on interacting and cascading hazards:<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: 16pt; font-variant: small-caps; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The Dynamics and Impact of Interacting Natural Hazards<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<b><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">An interdisciplinary workshop on current research and future directions<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">14<sup>th</sup></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">‒</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">15<sup>th</sup> February 2013<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">To be held at: University College London, London, UK<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Convened by University College London, King’s College London, and the University of Southampton.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Many populated areas are affected by more than one natural hazard, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis, floods, storms, and wildfires. Different hazards can overlap in time and location, so that the total impact on a community is increased by interactions between the hazards. Example of interaction types include: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt 'Times New Roman';"> </span></span></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">One hazard <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">triggering</b> another or a cascade of hazards <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">(<i>e.g., an earthquake triggering a landslide, which dams a river and causes flooding</i></span><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span style="font-size: 8pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">).</span></span><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt 'Times New Roman';"> </span></span></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">One hazard <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">changing the probability</b> of another occurring <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">(<i>e.g., a wildfire removing vegetation and increasing the probability of landslides during storms)</i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">.</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt 'Times New Roman';"> </span></span></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Temporal <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">changes in vulnerability</b> during successive hazards <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">(<i>e.g., the damage to buildings during an earthquake may increase both the building and human population’s’ vulnerability to subsequent hazards, such as hurricanes or tsunamis</i>).</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Hazard assessments tend to focus on the impact of single hazards and so overlook the cumulative impact of interacting hazards. To advance current methods of assessment it is, therefore, essential to improve the characterisation and modelling of hazard interactions and their impacts. The results should be of immediate value to governmental and non-governmental agencies and to business. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 6pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">This two-day workshop will bring together field practitioners, researchers and representatives from the academic, humanitarian, development, governmental and business sectors in order to evaluate the <i>practical applications</i> of current research and to define key directions for future investigations into the interaction of natural hazards. Although all relevant research is welcome, specific themes will be:<span style="font-size: 6pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt 'Times New Roman';"> </span></span></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Methods for measuring or analysing the interactions between hazards<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt 'Times New Roman';"> </span></span></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Evaluating and mitigating the impact of hazard interactions<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt 'Times New Roman';"> </span></span></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Understanding temporal and spatial changes in vulnerability<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7pt 'Times New Roman';"> </span></span></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Strategies for future interdisciplinary research in hazard interactions<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">We invite abstracts of no more than 300 words for oral or poster presentations in the specific themes above. Details and formatting guidelines for the submission of abstracts can be found on the conference website (details below). Abstracts may include a key figure or table. We anticipate that the conference will include a range of session types, and therefore <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">the number of oral contributions may be restricted in order to encourage extended discussion. The registration process allows you to submit </span>“Points for Discussion” which will be used to provide a framework for discussion and other interactive sessions. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The deadline for registration and the submission of abstracts and discussion points is 14<sup>th</sup> December 2012. There is a provisional limit <span style="color: black;">of 40 places.</span> To register, please complete the registration form at:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="file:///C:/Users/Joel%20Gill/Desktop/www.interactinghazards.com/workshop-information/registration"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">www.interactinghazards.com/workshop-information/registration</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">For further information and details, please see the website at </span><a href="https://sites.google.com/a/interactinghazards.com/interactinghazards/"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">www.interactinghazards.com</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> or contact Mirianna Budimir at <span class="MsoHyperlink"><u><span style="color: blue;">mirianna.budimir@interactinghazards.com</span></u></span>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">We look forward to your contributions<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Mirianna Budimir, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Melanie Duncan, AON Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College London<u> </u><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Joel Gill, Department of Geography, King’s College London<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-51072352578093755292012-09-20T08:34:00.002-07:002012-09-20T08:34:43.212-07:00Interesting news this summer<strong>Landslide Fatalities</strong><br />
<br />
Dave Petley has recently published an online paper in Geology on "<a href="http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2012/08/16/global-patterns-of-loss-of-life-from-landslides-my-new-paper-in-the-journal-geology/" target="_blank">Global patterns of loss of life from landslides</a>".<br />
<br />
See <a href="http://ihrrblog.org/2012/09/14/ten-years-of-collecting-landslide-fatality-data/" target="_blank">here</a> for cumulative frequency landslide fatality data over the past 10 years - with earthquake-induced fatalities and without.<br />
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<strong>Earthquake Secondary Hazards</strong><br />
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Researchers at Durham University, UK, spearheaded by <a href="http://www.dur.ac.uk/geography/staff/geogstaffhidden/?id=4725" target="_blank">Alexander Densmore</a> and <a href="http://www.dur.ac.uk/earth.sciences/staff/?id=2213" target="_blank">Mark Allen</a>, are investigating the cascading effect of earthquakes in a project "<a href="http://www.dur.ac.uk/ihrr/hazardsresearch/programmesofwork/whentheshakingstops/" target="_blank">When the Shaking Stops</a>". This is primarily looking at the effect of earthquakes on landslides and river basin changes, the secondary effects of large earthquakes.<br />
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<br />
<strong>Hurricane Vulnerability</strong><br />
A <a href="https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/research/7721/mapping-hurricane-vulnerability" target="_blank">recent study</a> by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, based in Boulder, Colorado, has found that people are more vulnerable to hurricanes further inland from the coast in the USA than previously thought. This is mostly due to people being less prepared to deal with hurricanes than those who live on the coast. A <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0477%282000%29081%3C2065%3ALOLITU%3E2.3.CO%3B2" target="_blank">2000 study</a> found that this was "often as the result of intense rain, flooding, mudslides, and tornadoes" - which I would consider cascading hazards.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-62389889151055653102012-09-06T08:57:00.001-07:002012-09-06T08:57:46.494-07:00Maplecroft's Natural Hazards Risk Atlas 2012In August, <a href="http://maplecroft.com/" target="_blank">Maplecroft </a>published their new <a href="http://maplecroft.com/about/news/nha_2012.html" target="_blank">Natural Hazards Risk Atlas 2012</a>. This excerpt is taken directly from their <a href="http://maplecroft.com/themes/nh/" target="_blank">website</a>:<br />
<br />
"Maplecroft’s Natural Hazards Risk Atlas 2012 is designed to help business, investors and international organisations compare the risks of natural hazards within 197 countries and assess their resilience during and after the occurrence of a natural hazard. The Atlas includes indices and interactive subnational maps of 12 natural hazard risks, as well as scorecards for all countries. In addition, the Atlas also measures countries’ overall economic exposure and socio-economic resilience to natural hazards."<br />
<br />What is great about htis map is that although it on a global scale, the resolution is much finer than national-level. It also appears to take a social perspective on natural hazards. I haven't been able to uncover much detail however about what indices were used and exactly how the map was created. It is unclear how the 12 hazards were collated - aggregated or whether interacting effects were taken into consideration. Although it was probably not the latter..... Something to improve on in the future?Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-47702984241504933142012-09-04T02:28:00.004-07:002012-09-04T02:28:58.297-07:00New Review Paper on Mult-Hazard Risk and Cascading HazardsI have recently come across a new paper out in July this year reviewing multi-hazard risk (including cascading hazards). This is a great paper written by Melanie Kappes, who I met at the EGU in 2011. It covers the current available literature on the subject and identifies challenges in dealing with multi-hazards. It is the first of it's kind to synthesise the current state of research and point the way forward to common issues which will need to be dealt with in the future of this field.<br />
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Particularly for my own research, there is a section on cascading hazards ('dealing with relations between hazard types') that gathers together all references to these phenomena in the literature. Several different approaches to investigating cascading events are outlined such as interaction matrixes and event trees. And it is always comforting to know that noone has published work on what you are researching for your PhD! There's always a little worrying thought that the research may have slipped past without you noticing.<br />
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For anyone who is interested in cascading hazards, this is a key paper and an ideal starting point to follow the references. I wish this had been available in my first year of PhD, and had intended to write a similar paper on the sme topic later this year as it was really needed for the field.<br />
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I hope the paper helps people as much as it has helped me.<br />
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<a href="http://www.springerlink.com/content/lv05n1k131551t23/" target="_blank">Kappes, M., Keiler, M., Elverfeldt, K., and Glade, T., (2012), "Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review", Nat Hazards.</a><br />
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(Thanks to J.Gill for making me aware of the paper!)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-75175708222948134572012-08-01T12:53:00.001-07:002012-08-01T12:54:40.566-07:0037th Annual Natural Hazards Research and Applications Workshop
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I have <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">recently returned from the 37<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span></sup> Annual Natural Hazards
Research and Applications Workshop in Broomfield, Colorado, organised by the
Natural Hazards Centre, Boulder. I presented a poster on my recent research
into <a href="http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/workshop/2012/abstracts/poster.html#budimir" target="_blank">‘Global Cascading Hazard Casualty Modelling: Earthquake-Triggered Landslides’</a>. I hope to write up my research soon
and get it published and will update here with any further news.</span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">There were no sessions on cascading or linked hazards
specifically, but I would like to share some of my impressions of the main
messages to come from the workshop.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.</span><span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The workshop was mainly from a more human geography/social
science standpoint, so one of the key messages was: it’s all about the people.
Science is definitely necessary, but at the end of the day, can only get us so
far because it is where hazards interact with humans that disasters are formed.
The decisions people on the ground make (whether it is the local authorities,
or the local communities or individuals) often are the key determinant as to whether
an event becomes a disaster or whether people survive and progress. How
prepared people are and their mental state often affects the outcome of a
hazard event.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Therefore it is important to
empower the people who are going to experience hazards to be able to take
control and responsibility for themselves. By engaging with locals, developing
a community spirit with strong leaders, people have a better chance of survival
and also potential to improve after an event, during reconstruction.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2.</span><span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">There was also a call for more holistic research
and well-rounded individuals in disaster preparedness and response. The nature
of research requires people to have a narrow focus in their repertoire. However,
in practice, more people with a breadth and depth of knowledge are needed. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p><br />
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">3.</span><span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Communication between specialities and
researchers are needed, as well as between researchers and practitioners. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We need to learn from each other. Researchers
need to communicate their results to the practitioners, and practitioners need
to communicate to the researchers what they need to be investigated. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Overall the workshop was incredibly informative, dynamic and
interesting. Emphasis was put onto discussions in the sessions and networking
at lunch and break times. The people were friendly and open to discussion and
sharing of knowledge. It has encouraged and reinforced my aim to work in this
field in my future career (post-PhD) and provided a well-needed push at this
half-way point in my PhD.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I wish I could attend next year’s workshop, but my PhD
funding won’t stretch far enough. I will just have to put together a great
conference next year with <a href="http://www.gfgd.org/blog" target="_blank">Joel Gill</a> (King’s College London) and Melanie Duncan (UCL)
on the topic of cascading hazards. Watch this space for further details….</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-66182364505319681652012-05-29T02:51:00.000-07:002012-05-29T03:37:02.508-07:00Upcoming Conferences<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some upcoming conferences this year dealing with natural hazards are listed below. All descriptions of the conferences are taken directly from the website advertising the conference. Of particular note is the Beijing conference which will have a session dedicated to cascading hazards.</span><br />
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Annual Natural Hazards Research and Applications Workshop</h2>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Since 1975, the Natural Hazards Center has hosted the <a href="http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/workshop/" target="_blank">Annual Natural Hazards Research and Applications Workshop</a> for 400 federal, state, and local emergency officials; representatives of nonprofit and humanitarian organizations; hazards researchers; disaster consultants; and others dedicated to alleviating the impacts of disasters.</span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>37th Annual Natural Hazards Research and Application Workshop<br />Saturday, July 14 through Tuesday, July 17, 2012<br />Omni Interlocken Resort<br />Broomfield, Colorado</strong></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The International Research Committee on Disasters Researchers Meeting and the Natural Hazard Mitigation Association Practitioners Meeting will immediately follow the main Workshop from Tuesday, July 17 through Wednesday, July 18.</span></div>
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The Third Conference of the International Society for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM Society) </h2>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">Beijing Normal University (BNU) in Beijing, China, on Sept. 7-9, 2012. The theme of the conference is “From surprise to rationality: Managing unprecedented</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1f497d;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">large-scale disasters”.</span></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">In recent years, there have been increasing number of large-scale disasters (LSDs) occurring around the world, among which there have been some of the worst cases ever in history, e.g. the “3.11” Tohoku earthquake in Japan. The fact of rising numbers of major natural disasters and increasing losses claimed despite of years of efforts devoted to natural disaster risk reduction has resulted in wide concern about the traditional approaches of coping with natural disasters. Particularly, the frequent arrival of large-scale disasters that exceed local coping capacity urges new paradigms of risk management. The <a href="http://idrim2012.adrem.org.cn/home.htm" target="_blank">3rd Conference of the International Society for Integrated Disaster Risk Management</a> aims to promote focused discussion on the Integrated Risk Governance issues for large-scale disasters. Researchers in the field of disaster risk research are invited to gather in Beijing from developed countries from North America, Europe and East Asia, and from developing countries from Asia, Africa and South America. They shall spend 3 days in intensive discussion on the scientific, technical, economic, financial, and educational issues regarding large-scale disasters. The ultimate purpose is to find new approaches to coping with natural disasters, further filling the gap between science and implementation, and enhancing collective decision-making.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
8th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation</h2>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #254a8c;"><span style="color: black;">19 - 21 September, 2012</span></span></span></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #254a8c;"><span style="color: black;">Island of Brac, Croatia</span></span></span></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.wessex.ac.uk/12-conferences/risk-analysis-2012.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">Risk Analysis 2012</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"> is the eighth international conference on risk analysis and hazard mitigation. Covering a series of important topics of current research interest and with many practical applications, the conference is concerned with all aspects of risk analysis and hazard mitigation, associated with both natural and anthropogenic hazards.</span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
International Conference on Hazards & Disasters 2012</h2>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;"></span><br /><div style="text-align: center;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">20-21 September 2012 </span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Negombo, Sri Lanka</span></strong></div>
<br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The <a href="http://www.globaldisasters.org/" target="_blank">ICRD/ ICAS joint Conference on Hazards & Disasters 2012</a> offers a valuable opportunity to network with colleagues from many countries who share the same goals. Scientists and experts in hazards and disaster risk management are invited to participate in this International Conference on Hazards & Disasters 2012. </span><br /><div align="justify" class="Class4">
<br /></div>
<div align="justify" class="Class4">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Session themes for the conference cover a rich and diverse range of research topics. We hope these sessions will bring researchers from across the globe together to discuss broad questions of common interest and provide a platform to establish relationships with new colleagues. You will be enlightened with innovative ideas and solutions at Hazards & Disasters 2012 and take initiatives to forge better solutions to reduce future risks and threats of hazards.</span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-90281680897456637542012-05-01T02:38:00.001-07:002012-05-01T02:40:16.168-07:00Matrix of multi-hazards<br />
A while ago I created a matrix table to get clear in my mind the links
between hazards. The result is displayed below. The table should be read from
left to right. The primary hazard is listed in the vertical far left column,
while the secondary hazard it triggers is listed along the top horizontal row.
<br />
<br />
It is by no means a complete or definitive guide to multi-hazards, but is a
useful tool for trying to visualise the connections. If anyone has any
suggestions to alter the table, I would be glad to hear them.<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 100.0%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.7%;" valign="top" width="9%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Earthquake<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Volcano<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.92%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Flood<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 7.5%;" valign="top" width="7%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Tsunami<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Landslide<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Avalanche<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.16%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Lahar<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.26%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Mudflow<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.64%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Hurricane<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.7%;" valign="top" width="9%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Earthquake<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #31849B; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Shaking = gaps for magma<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.92%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 7.5%;" valign="top" width="7%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Displacement of water<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Shaking<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Shaking<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.16%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.26%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.64%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.7%;" valign="top" width="9%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Volcano<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Eruption force<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #31849B; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.92%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Glacier burst<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 7.5%;" valign="top" width="7%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Displacement of water<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Flank collapse<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Eruption/ shaking of snow on top<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.16%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Tephra (+ melting)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.26%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Tephra (+ melting)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.64%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Tephra (?)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.7%;" valign="top" width="9%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Flood<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #31849B; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.92%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 7.5%;" valign="top" width="7%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Undercutting<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.16%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Entrainment of material<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.26%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Entrainment of material<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.64%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.7%;" valign="top" width="9%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Tsunami<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.92%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Water onto land<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #31849B; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 7.5%;" valign="top" width="7%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.16%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.26%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.64%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.7%;" valign="top" width="9%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Landslide<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Pressure change on flank<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.92%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Block and break of river/lake<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 7.5%;" valign="top" width="7%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Displacement of water<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #31849B; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.16%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.26%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Provision of material<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.64%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.7%;" valign="top" width="9%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Avalanche<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.92%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Damming/ burst and melting<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 7.5%;" valign="top" width="7%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Displacement of water<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #31849B; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.16%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Provision of transport<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.26%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Provision of transport<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.64%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.7%;" valign="top" width="9%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Lahar<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.92%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Provision of liquid<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 7.5%;" valign="top" width="7%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
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<td style="background: #31849B; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.16%;" valign="top" width="8%">
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.26%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.64%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
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<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.7%;" valign="top" width="9%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Mudflow<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.92%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Provision of liquid<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 7.5%;" valign="top" width="7%">
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<br /></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.16%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
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<td style="background: #31849B; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.26%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.64%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.7%;" valign="top" width="9%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Hurricane<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Pressure changes (?)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Water into gaps into magma<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.92%;" valign="top" width="10%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Heavy precipitation<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 7.5%;" valign="top" width="7%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Saturation of slopes<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" valign="top" width="11%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.16%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Heavy precipitation<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 8.26%;" valign="top" width="8%">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Heavy precipitation<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #31849B; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 10.64%;" valign="top" width="10%">
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<br />
<br />
At the EGU, Joel Gill presented a much more robust matrix of multi-hazards.
He intends to publish the results by the end of the summer, so watch this space
for updates...Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-50766298535565937742012-04-30T03:29:00.000-07:002012-09-05T07:46:32.963-07:00EGU 2012<span style="font-size: 10pt;">In 2011 I attended the European Geophysical Union (EGU) in Vienna for the first time as a new PhD student. In all of the presentation and poster sessions for natural hazards, only a handful dealt with multiple natural hazards. And of this handful, only a few discussed or mentioned the cascading or linked effect of multiple hazards.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">Kevin Fleming as manager of the<a href="http://matrix.gpi.kit.edu/" target="_blank"> MATRIX</a> project outlaid a plan to research many issues associated with multi-hazards. This included assessing their relationships, their cascading effects and the effect of temporal scale on vulnerability in successive hazard events. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://geomorph.univie.ac.at/en/member/former-members/phd-students/melanie-kappes/" target="_blank">Melanie Kappes</a> was also in attendance to present the findings of her PhD on multiple hazards affecting mountain environments. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">This year at the EGU, there was a whole session devoted to ‘<i>Multi-type hazard and risk assessment’</i>. It shows a shift in some researchers’ thinking towards a more holistic and less isolated way of dealing with natural hazards. I was very pleased to see it producing interesting presentations and posters, and also well attended. Of particular note in the session, was Joel Gill’s presentation on <i>‘Reviewing and visualising interaction relationships for natural hazards’</i>. His presentation outlined a clear way of showing the relationships between hazards, representing how they affect the likelihood and predictability of the secondary hazard and how well these relationships are understood in the literature. I look forward to his work being published as I feel it will provide a key reference in any research studying linked and cascading hazards.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">However, as I discussed with some of the attendees and presenters there at the time, there were very few presentations which dealt with the interconnectedness of hazards. Every presentation in the session dealt with multiple hazards; however, very few explored the connections and cascading effects of multiple hazards. It was postulated that perhaps a more consistent way of separating these research areas was needed in the literature.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">It is encouraging that multiple hazard research has become more popular and we do need more research into this area. but in this blog I will now make a differentiation between multiple hazard research (where more than one hazard is studied, but each is considered mostly separately) and what I will refer to as multi-hazard research (where connections, relationships and cascading effects between hazards are the main focus). When I come to publish my research, I will make this distinction clear, and perhaps over time with more people researching multi-hazards, the difference between them and multiple hazards will become clearer and more established.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2911311360011285591.post-82260257255198542392012-04-27T07:33:00.002-07:002012-04-27T07:36:38.192-07:00Cascading terms in the literature<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The term 'cascading' hazards is used
inconsistently in the literature, often in passing. It will be used
in this blog to describe the phenomenon whereby one hazard triggers
another, which triggers another and so on, so that the situation worsens.
Cascading hazards are also referred to in the literature as the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>'domino/avalanche
effect', 'cascading failures', 'catastrophe/disaster chains', 'triggered
events'</strong> or similar terms (Helbing and Kuhnert, 2003;
Delmonaco et al, 2007).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Shi (2005) separates disaster chains into two types: simultaneous
and serial chains:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong>Simultaneous chains</strong><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>are when multiple hazards occur in a cluster, at the same time
and space, causing several disasters concurrently (Shi, 2005).</span></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong>Serial chains</strong><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>or<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>synergistic events</strong><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>are a succession of disaster
events caused by a single hazard with the resultant disasters happening in
turn (Shi, 2005; Marzocchi et al, 2009).<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Delmonaco<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><i>et
al</i><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>(2007) outline two ways of
assessing cascading hazards.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The first is by examining an individual
chain of events, where one event triggers another, and try to assess the
probability values in order to create risk maps (Delmonaco<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><i>et al</i>, 2007). This approach is
input data demanding and ‘the complexity of the hazard chains can be
overwhelming’ (Delmonaco<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><i>et al</i>,
2007).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The second approach is to assess risk for
coincidences of hazards, even without assuming a direct link among them
(Delmonaco<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><i>et al</i>, 2007).
This is a more ‘robust’ and less data demanding approach that can give a rough
estimate of risk posed by cascading hazards (Delmonaco<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><i>et al</i>, 2007). However, it is
questionable whether this ‘overlay’ approach actually conveys a realistic
representation of cascading effects.</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1